WI: Germany loses the Franco-Prussian War?

Had to get my braces tightened last Friday. Wasn't expecting it to be too bad (this is the second time and I already took an Advil in preparation for it) but although the tightening itself didn't almost leave me in tears like the first time around, it did leave me with a much more persistent pain and soreness in my teeth/jaw. Were it not for that, I'd have posted something Friday...but, no use crying over spilled milk. The pain's mostly faded by now, so have a new post.

In 1870, the Second French Empire was provoked into declaring war on the Prussia-led North German Confederation by the latter's Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, who manipulated the Ems Telegram reporting French demands to his king in a way that deliberately insulted the French. Bismarck wanted this war to get the remaining German states (save for the Austro-Hungarian Empire) to fall in line behind Prussian leadership, making a united Germany a reality.

The Prussians and their German allies took advantage of their superior artillery, railroads and mobilization system to rapidly overwhelm the reckless and poorly led French, resulting in an utter victory capped off with their triumphant march into Paris nine months later. The House of Bonaparte fell from power for the last time, Germany was united, and the newborn Third French Republic would harbor a deep resentment over the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine by the German Empire that contributed to the outbreak of World War I 43 years later.

But what if...the French had been better prepared for the struggle, and thus managed to win? The smartest move Napoleon III could have undertaken would be to not respond to Bismarck's provocations at all, but that would be out of character for a man as vain and reckless in foreign policy (witness his ultimately disastrous attempt to make Archduke Maximilian of Austria into the Emperor of Mexico from 1864-67, which served no reasonable goal for France). Thus, assuming Napoleon still goes to war, his best chance would have been to use France's larger standing army to invade the Rhineland before the German alliance can fully mobilize its strength; historically, the French were too slow on the draw and the Germans mobilized in two weeks, after which the French high command lost its nerve and made the disastrous decision to fight defensively.

So, that is the point of divergence: the French move faster and more aggressively right out of the gate, with Napoleon III directing his forces from Thionville towards Trier in the Rhineland. The Prussians are unable to mobilize quickly enough to stop the French before they occupy the Rhineland, and their smaller standing army loses a few battles trying (and failing) to prevent this outcome. King Wilhelm I of Prussia loses his nerve and backs down, ending the war in a French victory.

So, what happens? A short, victorious war is exactly what Napoleon III needs to shore up his regime's crumbling domestic popularity after the debacle that was his Mexican intervention and amidst the growing strength of Republican conspiracies: with a major victory over the 'upstart Prussians' under his belt and French patriotic fervor spiking to new heights, his rule over France will become virtually unassailable. The Emperor would be giddy at his triumph and annex as much of the Rhineland as he can get away with (and likely Luxembourg too, as he nearly annexed it in 1867 before Prussian threats and British mediation got him to back down), to the fury of the German people and the great consternation of the rest of Europe. The conservative pro-war party in Paris, led by Napoleon's wife Eugenie of Montijo, would also be a beneficiary. Napoleon's son, the Prince-Imperial Napoleon Eugene, would succeed him either in 1873 when he dies or a little earlier than that if he abdicates (by 1870, Napoleon III was an old and sickly man well past his physical prime). The rump Papal States (consisting of Rome and its environs) would still survive under Bonaparte protection, making for a persistent sore point in Franco-Italian relations.

On the flipside, it would be Germany that develops a deep desire for vengeance on France, not the other way around. The unification of Germany would still likely occur (albeit more slowly), this time driven by fear and loathing of French aggression rather than a jubilant sense of triumph over the old Napoleonic enemy, even if Bismarck is sacked by King Wilhelm: by this point in time, Prussia has already consolidated northern Germany into a confederacy led by itself while only Baden, Bavaria, Hesse-Darmstadt and Wurttemberg remained nominally independent, and even they had effectively become Prussian vassals after the former's victory over Austria in 1866. An alternative possibility is that the southern German states remain independent, break their ties with Prussia over Bismarck's failure to deliver victory, and gravitate back towards Austria: however, the Prussia-led North German Confederation is here to stay. Whether as the head of a united Germany or just the NGF, the Prussians would pine after the Rhineland just as France historically did over Alsace-Lorraine.

The grand European alliance networks which historically built up to WWI would change quite radically in the world of a French victory over Prussia. France would pursue links with Austria-Hungary and Russia to contain the vengeful Prussians/Germans. On the other hand, Britain would continue to see France as its old enemy (as the Germans would not be considered a worthy rival for world dominance in a world where they lost the Franco-Prussian War) and align with the Germans and Turks, their old allies, instead of engaging in a diplomatic reversal to ally with long-time rivals France and Russia as they did historically. The Italians would naturally gravitate towards the Anglo-German/Prussian bloc, out of a desire to complete their own national unification by seizing the French-backed Papal States and Austrian-held Venetia & southern Tyrol.

Napoleon IV may opt to marry Princess Beatrice of Britain, Queen Victoria's youngest child, to cool tensions with the British, or the Austro-Hungarian Kaiser Franz Josef's eldest surviving daughter Archduchess Gisela to reinforce a Franco-Austrian alliance against Prussia. Either way, he was historically a hot-blooded and warlike prince (to the point of getting himself killed fighting the Zulus) - by 1870 he is 14, and thus it may be too late to change his personality - and if he chooses to follow in his father's footsteps & assert French power on a global scale, confrontation with Britain (regardless of whether or not he marries Princess Beatrice) becomes inevitable. World War I would likely still occur, if not from Austrian tensions in the Balkans then certainly from Anglo-French tensions in Africa or Asia and the lingering Franco-German rivalry: this time, it will pit a Franco-Russo-Austrian 'Entente' against an Anglo-Germano/Prusso-Turko-Italian 'Alliance'. As for who would win such a contest, there are too many variables between a French victory in 1870/1 and how & when this conflict will break out to answer such a question.