WI: The Merovingians remained on the French throne?

The Merovingians were the founding dynasty of France, ruling from 486 to 751. Their founder and most prominent member was Clovis I, a king of the Salian Frankish tribe who united most of his people and destroyed a Roman remnant in northern-central France (the 'Domain of Soissons') in 486, conquered the Alamanni living in what is now Alsace-Lorraine, northern Switzerland and western Germany a decade later, and finally expanded Frankish power southward into Aquitaine by defeating the Visigoths of Spain at Vouillé in 507.

When Clovis died, his empire was partitioned between his sons, revealing a major weakness of the Merovingian dynasty - their tendency to divide a previous monarch's lands between his children (a practice which you might recognize as 'gavelkind' if you're an expert in land tenure and inheritance laws, or like me you play a lot of Crusader Kings II). This prevented the Merovingians from properly consolidating power and creating a permanently unified kingdom out of the Franks. Neustria and Austrasia, as the western and eastern halves of the Frankish kingdom were called, often warred with one another under rival Merovingian rulers, further weakening the dynasty.

Over the 7th and 8th centuries, the Merovingian kings became so feeble that they were reduced to being figureheads for their 'Mayors of the Palace' (majordomos). Known as rois fainéants ('do-nothing kings'), most of these Merovingians aimlessly wasted away on their thrones while their majordomos did all the real ruling: a few, most prominently Chilperic II (715-721), tried to reassert their authority but failed. Their atrophied dynasty was finally officially dethroned by Pepin the Short, the son of the Frankish war hero and Austrasian Mayor of the Palace Charles Martel who defeated Chilperic, in 751 with the support of the Pope, closing the Merovingian chapter of French history and beginning that of the Carolingians. The last Merovingian King of the Franks, Childeric III, was banished to a monastery with his son Theuderic and faded into obscurity there.

But what if...the Merovingians were able to retain their throne? A good point-of-divergence to enable this would be Chilperic II's war with Charles Martel. Unlike his roi fainéant predecessors, Chilperic was an able warrior and enjoyed the backing of the Neustrian nobility, led by Mayor of the Palace Ragenfrid. He had nearly completely defeated Martel by 716, only to be undone when the Austrasians ambushed his forces at Amblève while he was making his triumphant ride back from Cologne. But if Chilperic had been able to predict Martel's ambush at Amblève and crush him permanently, he would have bought his dynasty a new lease on life.

So what are the medium to long-term effects? Well firstly, Chilperic wouldn't even be close to finished with having overmighty nominal second-in-command figures in his life after Martel is dealt with. He needs to watch his back around Ragenfrid, who would now be the undisputed Mayor of the Palace of both Neustria and Austrasia. Fortunately for Chilperic, Ragenfrid's support among the Neustrian nobility was not ironclad, and he may find opportunities to isolate his majordomo with the support of rival Neustrian aristocrats. If Chilperic can achieve that, he will not have to fear being overthrown as Childeric III was historically.

Chilperic and the Merovingian monarchs after him, mindful of how their precursors had been reduced to irrelevance and were nearly utterly undone by Charles Martel, will do their damndest to claw back royal authority from the Mayors of the Palace (not just Ragenfrid but also those who come after him) and rule the Franks in more than just name. As the Merovingians will likely be focused on rebuilding their royal prerogative and countering Islamic aggression (see below), they are unlikely to embark on Charlemagne's historical wars of expansion into Italy and beyond the Rhine, at least not in the 8th or even early 9th centuries depending on how long it takes them to consolidate their authority. Finally, the pagan Frisians (living in what is now the northern Netherlands) may well remain independent for longer as well: Radbod, the most powerful Frisian ruler at the time of Charles Martel's struggle for Francia, was an ally-of-convenience of Chilperic & Ragenfrid against Charles Martel, and would have benefited from a Francia too busy with internal problems and the Muslims to meddle in his affairs just as the Lombards in Italy would have.

The Islamic invasion of the early 730s is likely to end the same way it did historically, with a defeat for the Umayyad Caliphate. Not only were their forces operating at the extreme end of the Islamic world's logistical tether (the Muslim army that historically invaded France lacked proper clothing to deal with winter weather and lived off the land), but the Muslims were already defeated once by Odo the Great, Duke of Aquitaine, in 721 - 11 years before the much better known confrontation at Tours. Chilperic and Ragenfrid, as reasonably competent generals in their own right, could well have fended off the Umayyad incursion just as Charles Martel did historically (especially if they fought the Muslims at Tours like Martel did, where they would enjoy a strong terrain advantage). Unless they are able to regain their domestic authority very quickly however, the Merovingians will most likely be slower than the Carolingians to counterattack and establish any sort of Frankish March in Catalonia.

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